Brief overview of the Russian market on November 11. Focus on Alrosa’s results and increased interest in OFZs.
Information on the midday trading session
Wednesday saw a diverse trading dynamics on local exchanges. Some key indexes were in the red zone, reflecting the external context. Among the losers were TCS (-4.14%, TCSG 7 654) and Raspadskaya (-4.14%, RASP 435) stocks, while ISK Company (+30.36%, ISKJ 139.48) stocks continued to show excellent results. Foreign currency exchange was within the range of 70.5-71 rubles per dollar.
Top news from the local market
Alrosa plans to release third-quarter data (+1.77%, ALRS 132.99). The trading volume in this period reached $938 million (a 58% year-over-year increase). The forecasted net profit is $415 million, and EBITDA could reach $590 million with a profitability of 62%.
Company management notes favorable trends in the markets. Investors show interest in federal bond debt. Stocks traded at a yield of 8.5% on the secondary markets, leading to increased demand for government bonds. An auction for ten-year Ministry of Finance bonds with four times oversubscribed demand increased quotes by 2 p.p. in just a few days.
Rising prices in the USA (6.2% inflation, the highest rate in three decades) worsened investment community forecasts. The Central Bank of Russia may raise the rate to 8-8.5% per year. In Russia, inflation reached 8.13%. Despite a slight slowdown in momentum, the overall trend remains unchanged. Experts believe that investments in inflation-linked nominal bonds will be the best choice in this asset class.
Trading ideas
Consider speculative trading opportunities in the electricity market targeting 0.2395 rubles with FSK EES (-1.59%, FEES 0.18064) stocks. Note that the parent company Rosseti shows more stable dynamics. Risks of tariff indexation deficit are low. Electricity transmission volume has increased by 8-9%, while costs continue to rise.
Forecast for the upcoming day
Diverse trading dynamics are expected. Several days remain until important macroeconomic data and international news. The situation in external markets is relatively stable. The forecast for the Moscow Exchange is as follows: from 4150 to 4200 points. Currency exchange will be within the range of 70.0-71.0 rubles per dollar.